Week 3 NFL Picks: Vegas Betting Odds, Over/Under Spreads and Line Projections
Ryan Kang/Associated Press
Week 3 lines provide interesting betting opportunities.
Coming off a week in which the New England Patriots kept chugging right along without Tom Brady and a depleted Minnesota Vikings team upended the Green Bay Packers, bettors might find it hard to go into Week 3 with a ton of confidence.
Fret not, though. The early-season shenanigans aren't new or surprising. Teams will surprise or disappoint, and players will lose jobs, get injured or have breakouts. These are the variables to expect, which is why for the first month of the season it is so important to carefully analyze the lines out of Las Vegas before picking and choosing spots to strike.
Week 3 offers plenty of intriguing lines for bettors who know where to look. On top of straight outcomes, over/under projections offer another way for bettors to provide a bit of insurance in an unpredictable environment.
NFL Week 3 Odds
| Houston at New England (TNF) | HOU -2 | 41 | HOU 24-14 |
| Minnesota at Carolina | CAR -7 | 43 | CAR 23-20 |
| Detroit at Green Bay | GB -8 | 48 | GB 28-25 |
| Baltimore at Jacksonville | BAL -1 | 47 | JAC 20-17 |
| Arizona at Buffalo | ARI -4.5 | 47 | ARI 24-20 |
| Oakland at Tennessee | TEN -1 | 47 | OAK 23-14 |
| Cleveland at Miami | MIA -7 | 42.5 | MIA 17-13 |
| Washington at N.Y. Giants | NYG -4.5 | 47 | NYG 30-27 |
| Denver at Cincinnati | CIN -3.5 | 41 | DEN 23-17 |
| San Francisco at Seattle | SEA -10 | 40 | SEA 24-23 |
| L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay | TB -3.5 | 42 | TB 28-24 |
| N.Y. Jets at Kansas City | KC -3 | 43.5 | KC 21-17 |
| San Diego at Indianapolis | IND -3 | 52 | SD 28-20 |
| Pittsburgh at Philadelphia | PIT -5.5 | 46.5 | PIT 24-23 |
| Chicago at Dallas | DAL -4 | 45.5 | DAL 30-17 |
| Atlanta at New Orleans (MNF) | ATL -3.5 | 53.5 | NO 33-30 |
Odds via Odds Shark, author's projections.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Early Lines to Bet
San Francisco at Seattle (-10)
Jump on this one, bettors.
Does anyone really want to take the Seattle Seahawks by double digits right now? With a hobbled Russell Wilson, the Seahawks hardly got past the Miami Dolphins in a Week 1 affair before losing 9-3 to the Los Angeles Rams.
How miserable is the Seattle offense? Those Dolphins went on to cough up 31 points in a loss to a Jimmy Garoppolo-led New England offense the next week. The game in the trenches? A disaster, as Pro Football Focus' Steve Palazzolo pointed out:
Now the Seahawks have to deal with the San Francisco 49ers, a team that shut out those Rams in 28-0 fashion to start the season. Though the 49ers came back to earth in a 46-27 loss to the Carolina Panthers last week, this is still a rough divisional matchup and a plodding Seahawks team.
This isn't meant to suggest the Seahawks will take a loss. The defense has still played quite well. It is the Wilson-led offense not upholding its end of the bargain. But the defense can shutter Carlos Hyde (3.3 yards per carry through two games) and contain Blaine Gabbert, who has found legs as a rusher under new head coach Chip Kelly.
Just don't expect it to land anywhere close to the 10 points Las Vegas has it at.
Prediction: Seahawks 24-23
San Diego at Indianapolis (-3)
The gut instinct when looking at this line is to take the Indianapolis Colts over the San Diego Chargers and call it a day.
Pump the brakes.
The Colts took a 39-35 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 1. Last week was a 34-20 bombing at the hands of the Denver Broncos. Andrew Luck isn't getting any help at all, not from a ground game that has yet to hit the 100-yard mark in a contest or a defense that can stop anything.
Compare that to the Chargers, a team that lost a 33-27 heartbreaker in overtime to the Kansas City Chiefs while also losing star wide receiver Keenan Allen. Philip Rivers and the team rallied, though, blowing away the Jacksonville Jaguars, 38-14.
Rivers was quick to point out that the two games, in which the Chargers had a healthy lead in both, provided the necessary learning experience.
"It was huge. I'm glad it happened again right away," Rivers said, according to ESPN.com. "It was good for us mentally to get that put to bed that in the sense, 'When we're up 21, guys, we're going to win,' instead of that, 'Oh, we're hanging on.'"
The Colts won't have an answer for San Diego running back Melvin Gordon, who is coming off his first 100-yard game. This will open things up in the air for Rivers, and honestly, Luck and his offense haven't shown enough through two weeks to inspire confidence when it comes to keeping pace.
Prediction: Chargers 28-20
Chicago at Dallas DAL (-4)
Get this one while it is hot, folks.
The Chicago Bears just got smacked around on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles, taking a 29-14 loss at home. In the process, Jay Cutler, Lamarr Houston, Eddie Goldman and several other players suffered injuries of varying severity, as compiled by Eli Kaberon on the team's official site.
Now those hobbled Bears have to turn around on a short week and make the trip to Dallas for an encounter with the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
The Cowboys wouldn't normally inspire such confidence. But the team not only gets a hobbled opponent in Week 3, but it upended the Washington Redskins in an NFC East clash last week despite having rookie Dak Prescott under center. Prescott, fellow rookie back Ezekiel Elliott and Alfred Morris all rushed for touchdowns in the 27-23 road victory.
The reviews on Prescott have been nothing short of encouraging, as Jon Machota of the Dallas News pointed out:
Chicago doesn't stand a chance at stopping this three-headed monster of a rushing attack, not after allowing 129 rushing yards in Week 1 and 100 with two scores last week.
With Cutler hurt and perhaps unable to go, the Bears won't have any way to keep up as the Cowboys scoff at the over/under on the way to a win.
Prediction: Cowboys 30-17
Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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