TCU Horned Frogs vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick
Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press
TCU owns eight wins in its last nine meetings with SMU, but because they've been favored by so much so often, the Frogs are only 3-6 against the spread during that span. TCU will play as a big favorite again when it battles the Mustangs for the Iron Skillet on Friday night in Dallas.
Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 24-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 44.8-19.9 Horned Frogs (college football picks on every game)
Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread
The Frogs are 2-1 on the season following last week's 41-20 victory over Iowa State. TCU scored on its first two possessions, led 24-7 at the half and 41-10 with 10 minutes to go, but it blew the cover as 24-point favorites by allowing the Cyclones to score the last 10 meaningless points of the game. For the day, TCU outgained Iowa State 481-355, outrushing the Cyclones 229-138.
Two weeks ago, the Frogs lost to Arkansas in double overtime 41-38, but they actually outgained the Hogs that day 572-403. In fact, TCU has outgained and outrushed all three of its opponents this season.
Why the SMU Mustangs can cover the spread
With its 2-1 start, Southern Methodist already has as many wins this season as it did all of last season. It's also 3-0 ATS. The Mustangs opened with a 34-21 triumph over North Texas, covering as seven-point favorites on the road. They then lost at Baylor 40-13, but that game was closer than that final score might indicate, and they hung on for the cover as 34-point underdogs. And last week, SMU beat Liberty 29-14, sneaking out a lucky cover at 14 points.
The Mustangs took a 7-0 lead on the Flames last week with a touchdown on their first drive of the day, but they only led by five points late into the game. Fortunately, SMU scored twice in the last minute—on a short field goal and an interception return—to secure the victory and steal the cash.
Southern Methodist outgained Liberty 495-280 and rushed the ball 47 times for 286 yards.
Last year, the Mustangs held an early lead on TCU, fell down by 25 in the third quarter but battled back to within five points at 42-37 before fading. Still, it was an easy cover as 37-point dogs.
Smart pick
TCU gave up a bunch of points last year, and it hasn't been that much better so far this year. Meanwhile, SMU gave Baylor a decent battle a couple of weeks ago, only trailing the Bears by 13 points through three quarters. The Frogs might well still win this game, but the smart money rides the Mustangs.
Betting trends
TCU is 8-1 straight up in its last nine games against SMU.
TCU is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against SMU.
SMU is 0-13 SU in its last 13 games against teams with winning records.
All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.
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